Yesterday’s vote by the US Senate to expand sanctions against Russia into their energy sector is not sitting well with Germany and Austria, two nations which have a keen economic interest in ensuring Europe’s energy supply, and who see the US sanctions as a threat to their national interests.

“Europe’s energy supply is a matter of Europe, and not for the United States of America,” warned German FM Sigmar Gabriel and Austrian Chancellor Christian Kern, who issued a joint statement today, adding that the US move risked them reducing cooperation with respect to Ukraine.

Russia is the primary energy exporter to much of Europe, particularly with respect to natural gas. The joint statement accused the US move of being related to its “economic interest in exporting gas” to Europe, something that has been a top priority for some US energy companies.

Largely, the US is just interested in sanctioning anything and everything Russia related these days, and since the US has limited direct economic ties with Russia they don’t see the need to limit sanctions on aspects of the Russian economy which might do serious harm to key US allies. It has long been expected that the sanctions would wear thin in Europe after awhile, and ultimately the US may be hastening the European Union’s exit from the sanctions effort.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s office has issued a statement expressing concern about the US Senate’s vote to impose new sanctions on Russia, warning that they are prepared to retaliate if the sanctions end up harming German companies.

This is a realistic concern. The new sanctions imposed by the Crapo Amendment target Russia’s mining industry as well as attempting to curb foreign investment in its energy industry. German and other European energy companies have considerable such investments.

German companies Wintershall and Uniper in particular are heavily investing in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, an intended Baltic natural gas pipeline to provide Russian gas imports to northern Europe. Most of the nations in northern Europe, particularly Germany, are heavily dependent on Russia as a source of natural gas.

Merkel’s spokesman insisted it was “peculiar” that the US Senate would try to punish Russia for allegations of election interference by imposing sanctions that mostly threatened European companies that are securing energy imports, and threatened to respond if the US tries to do so.

In comments today, German Economic Minister Brigitte Zypries declared the latest round of US sanctions against Russia a violation of international law, pushing for the European Union to retaliate against the US to protect its economic interests.

Several European nations, but particularly Germany, have been concerned with the wording of the latest US sanctions, which intend to target foreign investment in Russia’s energy industry. Germany, and indeed much of the EU, are heavily dependent on Russian natural gas, and German companies working on gas pipelines fear they could be hit with US sanctions by this latest move.

The US has only limited trade with Russia in the first place, after all, and round after round of sanctions since 2015 has quickly exhausted most of that trade, meaning for new US sanctions to have any noticeable effect, they can’t really target Russia directly.

Targeting German energy importers, however, could be a dangerous mistake for the US, as the EU doesn’t have any realistic alternatives to trade with Russia at this point, and will doubtless feel obliged to protect their trade interests, irrespective of America’s wishes.

Continuing to ratchet up tension in the lead-up to Russia’s “Zapad” joint wargames with Belarus, German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen repeated the rumors that over 100,000 Russian troops would participate. She insisted such a large size proved Russia was doing it as a show of force.

The claim is not a new one, and rather appears to be a continuation of NATO accusations that Russia has already debunked. Since late July, Russia has estimated the exercise to involve fewer than 13,000 troops total, including both their own and Belarussian troops.

Original NATO claims that the exercise was much bigger than its announced size was based on estimates of civilian personnel involved in the operation across both countries. When tacking on the number of other troops that won’t be leaving their bases but are still technically “on alert” for the exercise, it balloons even further.

Yet there can’t possibly be any evidence that Russia’s official figures are false yet, with the exercise still seven days away. At best this is an accusation based on vague but long-standing mistrust, and Germany feels obliged to complain about the Russian wargames because Russia has complained about much bigger NATO wargames in the same vicinity.

New reports on the ongoing US program to arm Syria’s rebels have brought focus on several different operations. Among these is evidence that the US used the Ramstein Air Base in Germany as a route through which to ship the weapons.

That’s a big problem, because all indications are that the United States never informed the German government of these shipments, nor is there any sign that Germany ever gave even tacit permission for such shipments.

That would mean that the transfers were a violation of German law, and while the German government will likely not make a huge deal out of it, that’s not to say it won’t have consequences. Public protests surrounding the US military presence in the country will likely grow stronger with the suggestion the US is willfully violating German law.

This is all the more problematic because US arms to Syria have been ineffective, with many arms ending up in the hands of Islamists. At times US arms are on both sides of Syrian battles, and have just led to more infighting. Germany’s surprise complicity in that doubtless won’t sit well with many.

President Trump’s speech at the UN General Assembly was most noteworthy for his latest threat to “totally destroy North Korea.” While that’s not a new threat, the high-profile stage for this speech obliges top officials from around the world to react.

Japanese Premier Abe Shinzo spent virtually his whole UN address railing about the unprecedented threat of North Korea, while supporting Trump’s aversion to diplomacy, saying that what’s needed is “action.” He backed anything the US decides to do to North Korea.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel took the opposite position, saying that diplomacy is what’s needed, and offering to help facilitate direct talks. She added that Germany “clearly” disagrees with the idea of destroying North Korea.

British Prime Minister Theresa May tried to take a position broadly supportive of the US, but without backing an attack. She urged the UN Security Council to accept “all necessary measures” against North Korea to require them to disarm.

Germany’s BSI cyber agency confirmed Wednesday that there is no evidence whatsoever that security software maker Kaspersky Lab is in any way helping Russian officials, or engaged in any misconduct..They added there was no evidence of weakness in the software.

Kaspersky Lab has been the target of growing hostility within the US, primarily based on the fact it is a Russian-base company. It is now banned on all federal government computers, and multiple US stores have withdrawn it from sale.

The only suggestion that Russia’s government was actually doing anything with Kaspersky Lab came from a report in the Israeli media. According to this report, Israeli spies hacked Kaspersky, and they found Russian spies were also rooting around in their network.

Even in this case, they offered no evidence that the Russian government was specifically targeting the US, nor that Kaspersky knew about the intrusion. Kaspersky has consistently been among the top handful of anti-malware makers in the world.

President Trump will announce his decertification of the P5+1 nuclear deal with Iran this week, and the White House has said he will provide details on his overall strategy for Iran going forward.

Today, we may have our first idea what this might entail, as officials are being quoted as saying President Trump is “likely” to designate Iran’s Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization.

This would be the first time the US has ever designated a branch of another country’s military as “terrorists,” and would be hugely problematic, signaling growing US hostility toward Iran. Opponents of the move warn it risks provoking an Iranian retaliation.

President Trump is eager to move against Iran for its “bad behavior,” but there is little that they’re actually doing to justify such moves. Iran is complying with the P5+1 nuclear deal in all ways, and while Germany has accused Iran of trying to buy items forbidden them under sanctions, those purchases too were just “dual use” items that could’ve been for civilian and not military purposes.

In reality the US never stopped viewing Iran as a regional rival in the Middle East, and is having a hard time coming to grips with the lack of justification for more measures against them.

Germany has announced that they are suspending all training operations for the Kurdish Peshmerga in northern Iraq, saying they didn’t want to send “the wrong message” amid growing tensions with Iraq’s central government.

Over the past 72 hours, Iraqi forces have been launching offensives against Kurdish-held territory, and while fighting has been limited, Kurdish officials have said they view it as a declaration of war.

German DM Ursula von der Leyen says Germany wants to ensure the “unity of Iraq,” and that’s why they’re suspending all training of the Peshmerga. Kurdistan voted last month to secede from Iraq, with over 92% voting in favor.

During the ISIS war, several nations started training and arming deals in Iraq, some with the Kurds and some with the central government. The US has also threatened to halt training for the Iraqi military if the fighting doesn’t stop.

Though officially, most nations are opposed to Kurdish independence, in practice the training halt is more about not wanting to be blamed if this escalates into a total civil war in Iraq. This is particularly concerning for nations that have provided arms to these factions.

Many of the governments in the European Union have signed a deal binding themselves to joint military projects and increases in military spending, with an eye toward increased integration of the union-wide military forces.

23 nations signed the deal, while Denmark, Portugal, Ireland, and Malta will remain outside of the pact. Britain, which is in the process of withdrawing from the EU, will similarly not be involved.

Indeed, the Brexit is likely a big part of why this effort, which was long sought by France and Germany as a way to spread weapons development costs to smaller EU nations, finally got through at all, as Britain had long been resistant to the effort.

The expectation is that this will eventually give EU-wide forces the capacity for overseas operations. In practice, this will likely boil down to being just another level of bureaucracy spending money and throwing military forces into ill-considered operations abroad.

Unsurprisingly, as with anything else that involves a substantial increase in military spending anywhere in the West, the US is endorsing this project.

The three EU member nations that are party to the P5+1 nuclear deal, Germany, France, and Britain, intend to meet with Iranian officials on Thursday to reaffirm their support for the nuclear deal, in a move seen as intended to send a message to US President Donald Trump.

US excluded, all of the P5+1 nations have endorsed the nuclear deal repeatedly. President Trump decertified it in October, and is expected to do so again this week, though officials say he is likely to continue to honor the deal by keeping sanctions relief in place.

European Union diplomats say the goal of their affirmation of the deal is to once again underscore that Iran is complying with the terms of the agreement, something the IAEA has repeatedly certified, though President Trump has accused Iran of failing to do.

Though Iran had hinted they might withdraw from the deal if the US dishonored its terms, there have been repeated talks between them and all the other parties about keeping the deal in place in the event the US withdrew.

17-plus years into the US-led occupation of Afghanistan, German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen is counseling “patience” for German troops being sent to Afghanistan, saying that the Afghan government is far from ready to protect itself.

The German Bundestag has just recently approved an increase in troop numbers for the Afghan War, a move which came at the behest of the US. Thia ia raising a new round of questions as to how much longer they’re going to be stuck in Afghanistan.

Von der Leyen was very straightforward about that. The answer is that nobody has any idea how much longer they’re going to need to prop up Afghanistan, but there’s no sign of progress, and there’s no pretense of any timetable for it.

At the same time, the defense minister tried to spin the war as not going so bad, saying the Afghan government controlling 60% of Afghanistan is “good, but not enough.” That is the lowest amount of control since the 2001 invasion and occupation began, and US officials have predicted the situation will get worse in the year to come.

The P5+1 nuclear deal with Iran has been facing a lot of questions in recent weeks, with President Trump repeatedly threatening to withdraw the US from the deal. Trump’s decision may no longer be the difference between the deal surviving or collapsing.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani announced Monday that Iran has prepared for “all scenarios” and will remain “committed” to the nuclear deal no matter what the US does. He says if the US does withdraw, Iran will seek guarantees from non-American signatories. In particular he has sought assurances from the three EU member nations that signed, Britain, France, and Germany, that they will continue to abide by the deal.

Germany and France have both issued statements Monday confirming that they support the deal, and intend to stand by it whether or not the US remains involved. The German and French Foreign Ministers gave a joint news conference on the matter, with German FM Heiko Maas saying there wasn’t any “justifiable reason” to withdraw. The officials say they’re still trying to convince President Trump to respect the deal.

President Trump is expected to make an announcement on Tuesday. Even if he doesn’t withdraw this time, however, it’s clear that he will continue to demand renegotiation and better terms, and just continuing to threaten to withdraw further down the road.

Iran has ruled out renegotiation. Russia and China have both favored keeping the deal as currently worded, and with the EU nations also staying involved, it seems the nuclear deal is going to survive in some form, and the real question is whether or not the US is involved.

Britain, France, and Germany have issued statements following President Trump’s withdrawal from the P5+1 nuclear deal, warning the US that they must “avoid taking action which obstructs” the rest of the signatories from continuing with the deal.

Iran plans to stay in the deal, as do the other P4+1 nations. This involves substantial sanction relief for Iran and allowing Western businesses to trade with Iran. Though the US never really complied with this, European nations have tried to allow such deals, and don’t want the US to stop them.

That seems to be exactly what the US intends, however, with Ambassador Richard Grenell warning German companies that they’d better “wind down” any business ties they have with Iran. Grenell warned US sanctions will target Iran’s economy, and this is likely to include any European companies doing business with them.

These early signs point to the Trump Administration expecting everything to go back to pre-2015 Iran deal levels, with Iran under an effective global trade ban. No one else seems interested in doing that. Since the US made this decision unilaterally, over the objection of all other signatories, many are likely to resist the US demands.

With the US promising “enormous sanctions” to be imposed as soon as next week, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is warning European partners they have a “limited opportunity” to save the P5+1 nuclear deal.

Rouhani said the nations must act “very quickly” to try to preserve the deal, clarifying their respective positions. In particular, he wants them to specify what they intend to do about sanctions relief they are obliged to provide under the deal in the face of US sanctions.

European Union allies are all expressing support for continuing the deal without the United States. France in particular has promised to do its utmost to safeguard its growing business interests in Iran. Germany has also tried to reassure its business community.

The US Ambassador has already warned German companies to stop doing business in Iran. The European Union, however, may well block any US efforts to enforce this ban across European businesses, and has done so in the past with US sanctions against Cuba.

Both France and Germany have significant business interests in Iran, who after a generation of isolation needs a lot of infrastructure work. Given the amount of money at stake, these companies are concerned with US threats to stop them, and pushing their own governments to prevent the US from doing so.

One major argument against the US withdrawing from the P5+1 nuclear deal with Iran was the impact it would have on US relations with the other parties to the deal, including European allies. This appears indeed to be the case, as Europe scrambles to strike back against the US measures.

With the US talking new sanctions, and US officials ordering European companies to stop doing business with Iran, the European Union is already discussing legislation that would effectively block the US from enforcing the measure. This legislation is believed to echo the 1996 legislation the EU used to block US sanctions on Cuba from preventing EU business ties.

Since the Iran deal was signed, EU companies have been scrambling to secure lucrative infrastructure deals. The US largely prevented its own companies from reaching such deals, and has tried to keep EU banks from financing deals that had nothing to do with the US. Europe was annoyed at this before, and now that the US isn’t even a party to the deal, they are likely to be even less willing to brook US interference.

This is likely just the start of a broad rethink in US-Europe relations. German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned on Thursday that the EU can no longer count on the US to protect them. She added this is time for Europe to take its destiny into its own hands.

In comments Friday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel criticized President Trump for withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal, saying it was not right that a deal “voted upon in the UN Security Council and unanimously approved, should be unilaterally terminated.” She warned this would damage trust in the international order.

Merkel, as with French and British leaders, have made clear they aim to save the deal without US involvement. To accomplish that, they’re going to need help, and that’s likely to come in the form of Russia. Merkel has already spoken to President Putin on the phone, and the two will meet next week in Sochi.

This could be part of a broader change in international relations. Russia was already envisioning closer ties to Iran out of the US pullout from the deal. They may get better relations with Europe, particularly Germany, in the bargain as well.

All of this was predicted by analysts warning President Trump against trying to kill the deal. With Iran and everyone else complying with the deal, the US is seen as the spoiler, and is facing a backlash for it. Everyone is now focused on saving the deal, and Europe is particularly interested in saving its business interests in Iran. The US is a threat to both now, and that’s going to be a drag on US ties across the world.

While European parties to the P5+1 nuclear deal are looking to protect their companies from US sanctions, some of those companies are already expecting failure. Siemens CEO Joe Kaeser announced on Sunday that his company will not reach any new business deals with Iran.

Siemens is a major German company with multiple Iran infrastructure deals. Even though Germany says there are no obstacles to staying in the deal, Kaeser says he fears “targeted retaliation” from the United States if he keeps working with Iran.

This is exactly what the Trump Administration wants. US officials have threatened to sanction European companies that keep doing business with Iran, even though those nations are obliged to do so under the nuclear deal they are still a part of.

Clearly, US officials hope the threats will be enough. Germany, France, and Britain are going to have to do more to convince companies they are safe from the US, and had better do so quickly if they want to salvage the deal.

Iran has made clear that their remaining in the nuclear deal is contingent on the sanctions relief continuing. Siemens’ move does not bode well for that, though likely the Iranians will give the EU more time to effect an effort to block US threats.

Speaking with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, President Trump railed against NATO member nations who are not living up to the US demands for them to greatly increase military spending. He argued many nations aren’t paying what they’re “supposed to be paying,” and that they’ll “be dealt with” for it.

The US has long demanded all NATO nations spend a minimum of 2% of their GDP annually on the military. Many nations don’t meet this level, and many have said they have no intention of doing so. Since the alliance controls most of their neighbors, they really don’t have a need for a big military.

Trump singled out Germany in particularly, saying the country “has not contributed what it should be contributing” to military spending. German officials have made clear they have no intention of spending 2% of their GDP on military, and argue that funds for foreign aid should count just as much.

Many European NATO nations say they really don’t have the infrastructure to realistically spend that much on their militaries anyhow, and don’t have arms industries to support such large forces. It has been speculated that the US interest in forcing these increases is, at least in part, about selling more US weapons across the alliance.

EU nations, particularly Germany, were already interested in getting closer to Russia in their joint efforts to save the P5+1 nuclear deal with Iran. Another issue driving them together is the planned Nord Stream 2 pipeline, connecting Russian natural gas supplies to Germany.

Europe in general, and Germany in particular, need that Russian natural gas. The US opposes the pipeline, however, for deliberately circumventing Ukrainian territory. Russian President Vladimir Putin, visiting German Chancellor Angela Merkel, said that Russia will stand up to US attempts to block the project.

He’s not alone. German Economic Minister Peter Altmaier represented US opposition to the pipeline as “America first” policy attempting to secure US exports. He warned Europe would defend its own interests in the matter, even if they conflict with America’s.

US officials are downplaying the risk of a “trade war” with Germany over their disagreements, but  have also said they expect German companies to obey US edicts. As these differences go from hypothetical policy issues to real, practical ones with economic implications, Germany may find its interests much more closely align with Russia’s, and ultimately conclude that they’d benefit from a more independent, less US-centric foreign policy.